Nielsen: Global consumer confidence is on the rise

NEW YORK — Global consumer confidence edged up one index point in the third quarter to a score of 98 — an increase of one point from the previous quarter and two points from the start of the year. The index, which has been on a slow-and-steady rise for two-and-a-half years (since Q1 2012), has now exceeded a pre-recession level of 94 for three consecutive quarters, Nielsen announced Tuesday.

 

In the latest online survey, conducted Aug. 13 to Sept. 5, 2014, consumer confidence increased in 65% of the markets measured by Nielsen, compared to 52% in the second quarter. Among the world’s biggest economies, consumer confidence increased four points in the United States (108), one point in Germany (97), three points in the U.K. (93) and four points in Japan (77), from the second quarter.

 

Meanwhile, consumer confidence in China held steady at 111 for the fourth consecutive quarter.

 

Consumer confidence in the North America region improved most, rising four points to 107 — a score that matches Asia-Pacific’s index for the first time in Nielsen’s Consumer Confidence history (since 2005). Asia-Pacific’s index increased one point. Confidence also increased three points in the Middle East/Africa (96), one point in Latin America (91) and one point in Europe (78) from the previous quarter.

 

 

"Outside of North America, a range of region- and country-specific factors are translating into weaker and more uneven improvements in consumer confidence,” said Louise Keely, SVP Nielsen. “Europe is being directly affected by the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine, and is also at a critical policy juncture concerning steps to prevent deflation and improve growth. Among major emerging economies, while India is displaying renewed potential for accelerating growth from its new government, China is moving in a different direction as it reorients its economy toward greater domestic consumption."

 

Just over half of global respondents (52%) believed the job market would be good or excellent in the next 12 months, a two percentage-point increase from the second quarter. This modest increase follows steady but small upticks reported during the past five years since 2009 when employment sentiment dropped to an average annual low of 31% during that year.

 

While perceptions of personal finances have become more positive since 2009, consumers’ overall sentiment about personal finances has not improved as significantly as their sentiment about their employment opportunities. As many as 57% of global respondents rated their personal finances as good or excellent for the upcoming year, compared to the average annual low reported in 2009 of 46% — an 11 percentage-point increase. By contrast, the sentiment for job prospects increased 21 percentage points over the same time period.

 

North American respondents showed the most dramatic increase in job-prospect expectations, as perceptions about employment opportunities rose to 55% in the third quarter — a nine percentage-point improvement in 12 months (from 46% in Q3 2013). 

 

The economy and job security remain top concerns for respondents around the world, but sentiment on these points is weakening as worries about other concerns increase.

 

In North America, 27% of respondents said the economy was their biggest or second-biggest concern for the next six months — down from 34% in the previous quarter. Conversely, fears about terrorism spiked eight percentage points to 14%, concerns about war rose five percentage points to 9% and worries about work/life balance increased three percentage points to 12%.