Study: More than two-thirds of smokers will die from smoking

ULTIMO, New South Wales — A large Australian study of more than 200,000 people has provided independent confirmation that up to two in every three smokers will die from their habit if they continue to smoke. It also found that compared with nonsmokers, smoking just 10 cigarettes a day doubles the risk of dying and smoking a pack a day increases the risk four- to five-fold.

 

The research, published Tuesday in the international journal BMC Medicine, is the first evidence from a broad cross section of the population to show the smoking-related death toll is as high as two-thirds.

 

"We knew smoking was bad but we now have direct independent evidence that confirms the disturbing findings that have been emerging internationally, said lead author Emily Banks, scientific director of the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study and a researcher at the Australian National University. "Even with the very low rates of smoking that we have in Australia we found that smokers have around three-fold the risk of premature death of those who have never smoked. We also found smokers will die an estimated 10 years earlier than non-smokers."

 

Until relatively recently it was thought that about half of smokers would die of a smoking-related illness, but newer studies in U.K. women, British doctors and Amercian Cancer Society volunteers have put the figure much higher at up to 67%.

 

"We have been able to show exactly the same result in a very large population-wide sample," Banks said.

 

The research is the result of a four-year analysis of health outcomes from more than 200,000 men and women participating in the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study — the largest longitudinal study of healthy ageing in the Southern Hemisphere.

 

Australia has one of the lowest smoking rates in the world at 13% of the population.

 

The research was supported by the National Heart Foundation of Australia in collaboration with major 45 and Up Study partner Cancer Council NSW, and was conducted by a national and international team.