Specialty, diabetes dominating Rx market

DENVER — Sunday morning at NACDS Total Store Expo, IMS Health’s VP industry relations Doug Long presented on “Pharmaceutical Trends, Issues and Forecasts.” Long gave an overview of the present state of the U.S. pharmaceutical market and where it might be headed in the coming months and years. 

According to Long, 2015 like 2014 has thus far seen double-digit spending growth — a 12.5% increase, with MAT spending hitting a moving annual total of $399 billion through June 2015. This growth, Long said, is attributed largely to hepatitis C medications and diabetes treatments, as well as oncology drugs. 

That the vast majority of drugs used to treat hepatitis are branded points to a larger trend — the ascendancy of specialty pharmacy, which is largely driving spending on new brands. In the last 12 months, $19.8 billion has been spent on new brand spending, with 75% of it going toward specialty medications. 

The growth in specialty is accompanied by a decline in generic sales. In 2011, generics accounted for 42% of U.S. sales growth, but so far this year that number is about 10%. Generics prices also are rising, partially because of increased scrutiny on manufacturers’ quality, which can lead companies to make up their investment with higher prices; rising customer numbers motivating companies to pick up revenue where they can; and the low number of new product launches, which puts more pressure on already existing products, Long said. 

Looking forward, Long said he foresees generics being a boon for pharmacies, especially among older patients. 

“The sweet spot for pharmacy is that the primary drivers of the prescription forecast reside in older patients with chronic conditions treated with generic medications,” he said. “Eighty-three percent of these prescriptions are generic, 70% are for chronic conditions and 65% are filled by patients 50 and over.”