Retail sales moderately rise in March as a result of tariff concerns
Retail sales inched up in March after two straight months of declines, but gains remained moderate amid consumer concerns about rising tariffs.
Core retail sales (excluding restaurants, automobile dealers and gasoline stations) edged up 0.4% month over month in March and up 5.07% year-over-year, according to the National Retail Federation’s CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions.
Total retail sales (including restaurants but excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose 0.6% month-over-month and up 4.75% year-over-year in March, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with a decrease of 0.22% month-over-month and an increase of 3.38% year-over-year in February.
Total sales were up 4.52% year-over-year for the first three months of the year, and core sales were up 4.96%.
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“The pullback we’ve seen the past few months comes despite strong economic fundamentals,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay. “A major factor appears to be driven by the uncertainty caused by tariffs. March’s increase is partly the result of stocking up to get ahead of tariffs. With the economic outlook unclear and the situation fluid, consumer sentiment is weakening, and many consumers are shifting disposable income into savings.”
The March results reflect consumer spending that came after President Donald Trump announced tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico in February, but before he announced a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S trading partners on April 2 along with sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries. The reciprocal tariffs have been suspended for 90 days, but additional tariffs on China have resulted in back-and-forth escalation between China and the U.S.
March sales were up in five out of nine categories on a monthly basis.
Specifics from key sectors include:
- Digital products were up 0.79% month-over-month and up 27.62% year-over-year.
- General merchandise stores were up 0.48% month-over-month and up 7.62% year-over-year.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were unchanged month-over-month but up 6.63% year-over-year.
- Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.29% month-over-month but up 5.94% year-over-year.
- Health and personal care stores were down 0.44% month-over-month but up 5.39% year-over-year.
- Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.65% month-over-month and up 3.05% year-over-year.
- Clothing and accessories stores were up 0.76% month-over-month and up 2.37% year-over-year.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.01% month-over-month and up 1.81% year-over-year.
- Building and garden supply stores were down 0.81% month-over-month but up 0.78% year-over-year.
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
This story originally appeared on sister publication Chain Store Age.
